Wednesday, August 19, 2015

the trading book

Hmm. Hummm. Now I'm going to look for ...
alibaba ... Group ... BABA
looking at news, for news
for that article with the bad news
with the chart

looking at a chart,
a stock that I did buy
a little of
just the other day
After it jumped
buying the back side of the wave when it slumped down after
this was preceded by flat water
and now it ought to be flat water
again
i screwed it up
again
but then it isn't a bad ten year chart
this one that i stumbled on
glad i saw it
a giant wave and then
five years later
another kind of big wave
a group of three pretty waves
you wouldn't quite call them wavelets
or splashes, either
you would say they made you would say
some noise
for the tiny swimmer
in among them
so all of a sudden i'm analyzing cycles
that was five years between the two big waves
so, yea, we are getting into that area

and there was a spiky little firecracker just the other day

but it's a delicate situation
looks like it's still down, today

not good
not good
no news to be found
they make carrying cases
but this was years ago!

what triggered that spike?
i'm gonna start paying more attention to that question
when one of these stocks jumps
but
really
that's kind of a drag to do
i'm not sure i want to
i mean it can be fun
but its tiresome
paralyzed, too
no way to exit the trade gracefully
get out and see it go way up which
does happen sometimes
or try to make some more intelligent comments?
the pattern in the long term chart was too spindly
we want thick beefy waves
one lower than the other
with a clear flat spot at the end
at the lowest price
what about flags?
flags are not as reliable as these patterns
and they don't jump up as emphatically
or as durably

these patterns are the wakes of ships in the sea
we want to hitch ourselves to a ship with a strong churn of a wake not a little ripple

or one with the dynamic captain and handsome lines
maybe something like that

so what you want to do
because it's easy to find a bunch of stock that just jumped
like
you go to finviz and it lists them
right there
on the  home page
and it's end of day trading so
you look,
first at the long term chart for beefy waves
one lower than the other
i mean the second one lower than the other
and a distinctly flat bottom
at the end
at the lowest price
and then
an upward spike
or jump
clear above the bottom
clear above the previous day's high especially
and above the highs of the bottom
if maybe just
maybe
now we're going to look at the day's action
my guess is it jumped in the morning
and then did something
what did it do
after it jumped
bounced back down and then immediately back up again and down
and up and down a little and
up
a little?
or up and down sideways right below the top
that would at least be interesting
but what if it
so i've enjoyed not smoking pot your honor
i feel more normal, at least in that sense but
i'm tempted
i hate not having it
my mouth just takes over and i get it accidentally that way
and there's not actually anything wrong with it
as i was saying to the officer, officer, i'm busy. i'm going home to do house work and work on my
book.
so now i'm going back and forth for no reason
and it's not even like i want to
somebody else wants to make me what we're doing as a society is over parenting
why is it so stultifying?
because it's stultified
you can't think of anything better to do
i mean, i'm really careful not to get wild
not in a noisy way
i even try to avoid people so as not to bother them
i don't bother them and actually i don't get in trouble but it is all very weird
OK, let's say it gave back almost all the territory it gained today
did it do anything dramatic like a giant swirly pattern, closing low and flat
or an extremely straight squiggly line of actual trading that would have to mean something
or maybe it gapped up in the morning and then traded up and down above the gap
clearly up and down in the one minute chart
width a cluster of narrow bars at the end, maybe
could mean something
you could also check the chart first thing in the moring
and if it gaps up dramatically from the nearest clustered one minute bars
or of distinctly energetic waves then maybe you've found a keeper if you buy it
and it'll go up sharply all day, maybe way up, to incredible highs
trading actively all day
and then you can probably sell it the next day
looking for the signal
i mean it's possible it will make a pattern the second day, too
driving across town
being very careful to avoid any possible kind of incident
coasting for long stretches but then shifting the gears and giving her gas at times
skittering around corners turning sharply but at very low speeds
for fun
and to be always in complete control
finding my way, navigating traffic
picking the quietest route
cops everywhere
coasting slow but there's nobody behind me cause i shot out of there a little
flawlessly executing every turn and not waiting at any lights
coasting down the hill now in a little rush of wind
trundling towards the light which is now turning orange
not braking, just a little push on them when i turn in
then another couple making her shudder as i coast to a complete stop nose out a little
checking for traffic
that is quite the blind intersection with nobody around at all and right turn on red
after who knows how long a light the correct thing is to go
in the desert
navigating the hot crisp pavement
running the a/c pro dius
watching and waiting for breakouts
from linear patterns
gaps up
but if it
...
gaps up
checking first thing in the morning for them
then watching

washing, after all, a whole raft of dishes
using up the old dish water and starting a new
hanging on and saying this is normal, right
this is normal
gathering even more from different corners
of the kitchen and finally taking out a hard
frozen hot dog should have done it hours ago
helpless helpless in the kitchen and yet i usually
get dinner done something like on time checking
the clock and ok, on schedule because i'm also
writing, that's true

the rules of trading

you are responsible for creating a brokerage account
But I was going to write about my experience with Scottrade, who I selected, years and years and years ago, because they seemed big and capable. They sounded respected. And yet, they were an alternative player, and slightly nerdy, just enough so, just right. Five hundred dollars opens an account and now you've got on line trading although back then I called orders in. Losing money, or even not sure what was happening at all, but not all that much, after all, to trade, I had to put money on deposit, but then losing big, in another account, to the point where I had no money. But the gods provided, i thought they would, they really did, have, despite my doing nothing, even the wrong things, except some right things, righteous things, just a little, just enough, pushing it out another day, again. Losing and losing and losing for years and years and years and years, compulsive, driven, not quitting, not thinking about quitting.
Still, in there, more recently, the occasional success, like two stocks gaining 500% in one year. Are you saying that's a coincidence? I mean, I definitely picked them, and what are the chances I would randomly pick a stock that will go up five times in one year. And another going up ten times in one month, which I was actually sure it would, but then not selling it, and it's all the way back down again a few months later. Waiting, because I kind of trust it. I even didn't sell it deliberately. I'm actually glad I didn't!
But I want to refine my technique. I really must. It's ridiculous. No, I think I've actually got it. Wait for a morning gap up and buy near the gap high. I'm putting off folding the boiled linens, is what I'm doing. I'm indulging myself and being wild. I'm starting in on the delicious beer and I've held off a long time and I'm refreshed and I stayed out in the heat though I ran the a/c non-stop to save wear on the motor good. Either pour on the gas if only for a moment or press it not at all or just a little is the way. Roshi even said that. I got it from the Samurai. Lift high when striking and apply English, or French. Buying close to the gap high, when there's a morning gap, meaning, what, you have to think about this, meaning at the gap high, the first bar after the gap, unless, maybe, that's a very long bar? Then buying close to the gap low? What if after the first bar that is long it makes a second bar that is short? What are long and short they're relative to the size of the gap. What if it's a tiny gap and then late in the day prices return to near the low of the first bar but stay above the gap? Listen, if it gaps up a ton, maybe it's done, that's possible, but what's a ton? You check that relative to the larger nearby pattern. How big was the previous actual wave - not if it started high but you have to see the top and the front of it? Did it jump just a small part of that distance and just above the little waves that made a flat spot of some kind, clearly distinguishable? Does it seem like just a frilly decoration on the end of a long tendril of low prices? You may have found a winner because the next day it can go all the way up, all the way to the big highs more or less, and that could be a real winner. Or it could gap up a little, again, but when you sell is when it gaps up a lot, a lot bigger than these little gaps that started the thing, or really it's not gapping up, any longer, it's spiking. It might gap up a little, but then it'll climb all day. At the end of the day it'll stand up proudly, the daily bar, far larger than the initial motion, and then it's probably time to sell - I mean, there is an exception - but a lot of the time it'll be perfect. So the thing is, with this kind of trade, you could buy fifty dollars worth and actually make money. Heck, you could put in twenty dollars and make money. Now you can trade twenty five times even if you loose every time. This is the ultimate rule of trading.
I have had an idea.
5:24, and still, on schedule.

Another.

And a big gap up out of nowhere, in the first thing of the morning, you could buy it right then, with a short one minute bar, or coming down towards the bottom of a longer one minute bar. What if it gaps up just a little in the morning? Wait until the end of the day to buy it? That could be an idea. What if it climbed steadily all day then, but not too much? Then you could be happy.

Checking the day's movers. CLTX is up almost 300%. Why not take a look. Fantastic sideways pattern for weeks previously. Canyon bottom. Crisp. Elemental. Zooming in on the three month chart, searching for it over at MarketWatch, and yes, there it is. !. The gapping day, and, the next day, the big rally.

What did it do during the gapping day, though. You can see it opened high, then went lower, then finished in the middle. It went up and down in waves during the day. And then, the next day, the big big bar. Closing at the extreme top, too. This is going up again tomorrow. It'll be an even bigger bar, but not bigger percentagewise,,,,,,,,the real opportunity was yesterday, after a near 50% gain already.



AMaZoN flashed The Patern at 50 in 2007 and at 100 in 2009 and at 200 in 2012 and at 350 in 2013 and again early this year and then at 400 a little later this year and at 525 just the other day. I just looked at a whole bunch of example in the charts - I looked at all of them - on the Finviz home page, and a lot of them didn't produce giant rallies the next day, but very few of them went or have gone down really at all and quite a few produced some kind of rally anyway and pretty much all of those are going sideways and looking at the very least promising. The Pattern seems to predict not only short term fireworks, often enough, but long term excelence, as well. Picked a few to highlight on the charts blog. Lots of attractive pre-Signal patterns. Hopefully I'll be more thorough with my watchlist building going forward.

Someone amazingly high level looked at this blog recently. I wonder if they found it interesting. And there's also a little chart showing the number of visits over the last few days, and if it was a stock, I would be very interested. I would predict a jump in readership.